Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio: backtest, returns and drawdowns
Ninety percent in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and ten percent in short-term government bonds.
Data updated October 2026
Created by: Warren Buffett (2013 letter to shareholders)
Allocation
| Asset class | ETF used in the backtest | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | VOO | 90% |
| Short-term US Treasuries | SHY | 10% |
From June 2020 to October 2026 the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio returned 15.9% a year on average, with annual volatility of 15.0%. Its deepest fall was 22.5%, from January 2022 to October 2022, recovered in about 24 months.
Its best year was 2021 (+25.8%) and its worst 2022 (−16.7%).
Over the same period 100% US stocks returned 16.8% a year with a maximum fall of 25.4%.
Key figures
- Annual return (CAGR)
- +15.9%
- Annual volatility
- 15.0%
- Maximum drawdown
- −22.5%
- Recovery time
- 24 months
- Sharpe
- 0.88
- Sortino
- 1.25
- Worst year
- 2022: −16.7%
- Positive years
- 4/5
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
Returns by calendar year
| Year | Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio | 60/40 Portfolio | 100% Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026(partial) | +13.6% | +8.0% | +14.7% |
| 2025 | +16.5% | +13.1% | +17.1% |
| 2024 | +22.9% | +14.8% | +23.8% |
| 2023 | +24.1% | +17.9% | +26.1% |
| 2022 | −16.7% | −17.0% | −19.5% |
| 2021 | +25.8% | +14.6% | +25.7% |
| 2020(partial) | +20.7% | +16.5% | +26.4% |
How it works
Buffett’s own instruction for the trustee of his estate: keep it simple, keep costs low, own the US stock market.
Backtest with total-return ETF prices (dividends reinvested), rebalanced to target weights on the first trading day of each year. No fees, taxes or currency effects; first and last years are partial. Past results do not predict future returns.
Questions
What is the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
Ninety percent in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and ten percent in short-term government bonds. Allocation: 90% s&p 500, 10% short-term us treasuries. Created by: Warren Buffett (2013 letter to shareholders).
What is the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio return?
In the backtest from June 2020 to October 2026 it returned 15.9% a year on average, with a maximum drawdown of 22.5%. US dollars, before fees and taxes.
How often should it be rebalanced?
The backtest rebalances once a year back to the target weights. Rebalancing more often changes little and adds costs; some investors rebalance only when a weight drifts beyond a threshold.
What was the worst drawdown of the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
22.5%, from January 2022 to October 2022; it took about 24 months to get back to the previous high.
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- Versione italiana
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices. Historical and educational content: not a forecast and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.