JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio: backtest, returns and drawdowns
Seventy-five percent US total stock market and twenty-five percent bonds, the mix for living off the portfolio.
Data updated October 2026
Created by: JL Collins (2016)
Allocation
| Asset class | ETF used in the backtest | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | ITOT | 75% |
| US aggregate bonds | BND | 25% |
- Stocks 75%
- Bonds 25%
From October 2011 to October 2026 the JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio returned 11.3% a year on average, with annual volatility of 12.7%. Its deepest fall was 26.8%, from February 2020 to March 2020, recovered in about 6 months.
Its best year was 2019 (+25.2%) and its worst 2022 (−17.9%).
Over the same period 100% US stocks returned 14.3% a year with a maximum fall of 35.0%.
Key figures
- Annual return (CAGR)
- +11.3%
- Annual volatility
- 12.7%
- Maximum drawdown
- −26.8%
- Recovery time
- 6 months
- Sharpe
- 0.79
- Sortino
- 1.11
- Worst year
- 2022: −17.9%
- Positive years
- 12/14
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
Returns by calendar year
| Year | JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio | 60/40 Portfolio | 100% Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026(partial) | +9.1% | +6.9% | +12.7% |
| 2025 | +14.5% | +13.0% | +17.0% |
| 2024 | +18.2% | +14.8% | +23.8% |
| 2023 | +21.0% | +17.9% | +26.1% |
| 2022 | −17.9% | −16.9% | −19.5% |
| 2021 | +18.8% | +14.6% | +25.7% |
| 2020 | +17.4% | +15.4% | +20.7% |
| 2019 | +25.2% | +21.9% | +30.7% |
| 2018 | −4.0% | −3.1% | −5.3% |
| 2017 | +16.9% | +14.2% | +21.4% |
| 2016 | +9.7% | +8.3% | +12.1% |
| 2015 | +0.1% | +0.2% | −0.1% |
| 2014 | +10.6% | +9.7% | +12.2% |
| 2013 | +23.3% | +18.2% | +31.8% |
| 2012 | +12.0% | +10.4% | +14.7% |
| 2011(partial) | +3.5% | +3.1% | +4.1% |
History
- Created by
- JL Collins
- Who
- Author and blogger
- Year
- 2016
- Source
- The Simple Path to Wealth (2016)
- Funds in the backtest
- 2
JL Collins began writing letters to his daughter about money on his blog; they became The Simple Path to Wealth (2016), one of the best-known books of the financial independence movement. His advice for building wealth is a single total US stock market index fund.
For the “wealth preservation” stage, when an investor lives off the portfolio, he adds a bond index fund to smooth the ride. The 75% stocks and 25% bonds mix tested here is the one he describes for that stage.
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- Two funds
- Stock-heavy for long-term growth
- A bond reserve for withdrawals in bad years
Weaknesses
- Only US stocks
- 75% in stocks: deep falls in crashes
- No real assets
How it works
One stock index fund to build wealth; add a bond index fund to smooth the ride once you live off it.
Backtest with total-return ETF prices (dividends reinvested), rebalanced to target weights on the first trading day of each year. Where a Vanguard fund has a short price history in our data, an iShares fund on the same market is used (for example ITOT for VTI, IVV for VOO). No fees, taxes or currency effects; first and last years are partial. Past results do not predict future returns.
Questions
Who created the JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio?
JL Collins (author and blogger), 2016. Source: The Simple Path to Wealth (2016).
What is the JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio?
Seventy-five percent US total stock market and twenty-five percent bonds, the mix for living off the portfolio. Allocation: 75% us total stock market, 25% us aggregate bonds. Created by: JL Collins (2016).
What is the JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio return?
In the backtest from October 2011 to October 2026 it returned 11.3% a year on average, with a maximum drawdown of 26.8%. US dollars, before fees and taxes.
How often should it be rebalanced?
The backtest rebalances once a year back to the target weights. Rebalancing more often changes little and adds costs; some investors rebalance only when a weight drifts beyond a threshold.
What was the worst drawdown of the JL Collins Simple Path Portfolio?
26.8%, from February 2020 to March 2020; it took about 6 months to get back to the previous high.
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Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices. Historical and educational content: not a forecast and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.