S&P 500: returns, drawdowns and futures positioning
About 500 of the largest US companies, chosen by an S&P committee and weighted by market value. It is the usual yardstick for the US stock market.
Data updated October 2026
Measured through SPY, total return in US dollarsData from October 2006
$10,000 in the S&P 500 (SPY) from October 2006
$80,739
+707% in total, +11.0% a year on average, with dividends reinvested, in US dollars.
- Calendar years with a gain
16 of 19
Best 2013, +32.3%. Worst 2008, −36.8%.
- Deepest fall
−55.2%
Oct 2007 to Mar 2009. Back to the previous high 4.8 years after the peak.
- Annual volatility
19.4%
How much returns swing around their average. Worst single month: −16.5%.
- At the last close
1.6% below its high
October 19, 2026.
Returns to October 2026
1 year
3 years
a year
5 years
a year
10 years
a year
Since 2006
a year
Total return to the last close, dividends reinvested. Periods longer than a year are annualised. QQQ is Invesco QQQ Trust, shown for reference.
What holding the S&P 500 was like
Every stretch of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years since October 2006, starting at each month-end. The bar runs from the worst stretch to the best; the mark is the middle one. Held for 10 years, the S&P 500 never lost money: the worst stretch still returned +6.6% a year.
Held 1 year
229 periods
83% of periods ended with a gain
Held 3 years
205 periods, a year
93% of periods ended with a gain
Held 5 years
181 periods, a year
98% of periods ended with a gain
Held 10 years
121 periods, a year
100% of periods ended with a gain
Falls and recoveries
How far the S&P 500 was below its previous high, week by week.
| Fall | From the high of | To the low of | Falling for | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −55.2% | Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | 17 months | Sep 2012, 4.9 years later |
| −32.0% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 months | Aug 2020, 6 months later |
| −24.3% | Dec 2021 | Oct 2022 | 10 months | Dec 2023, 2 years later |
| −17.5% | Dec 2024 | Apr 2025 | 4 months | Jun 2025, 7 months later |
| −16.0% | Jan 2018 | Jan 2019 | 11 months | Apr 2019, 15 months later |
Year by year
The S&P 500 ended 16 of 19 full calendar years higher. The average gain in an up year was +18.3%, the average loss in a down year −19.8%.
YTD: from 1 January to the last close. 2006 starts at the first price, October 2006.
Example: $500 a month for 10 years
Put in from Nov 2016
$60,000
Worth at the last close
$135,866 +126%
At no month-end was the account worth less than the money put in.
Try your own amount and datesInvested at each month-start, dividends reinvested, before trading costs and taxes.
Who holds E-mini S&P 500 futures
Net positions by type of trader in the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report of October 20, 2026 (positions as of Tuesday, published on Friday). The dot shows where each net position sits between its most short and most long of the past year.
Leveraged funds
Hedge funds and CTAs
Net short 371,245
contracts, 19.2% of open interest · +37,481 on the week
Asset managers
Pension funds, insurers, mutual funds
Net long 901,377
contracts, 46.6% of open interest · −14,458 on the week
Dealers
Banks and market makers
Net short 636,931
contracts, 32.9% of open interest · −34,573 on the week
Net position as a share of open interest, weekly, last three years. Above zero: net long.
ETFs that track the S&P 500
| Fund | 1 year | 5 years, a year | 10 years, a year | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +16.6% | +12.7% | +15.4% | USD |
| VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF | +16.7% | +12.8% | — | USD |
| IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +16.7% | +12.8% | +15.5% | USD |
| CSSPXiShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | +22.6% | +13.5% | +14.9% | EUR |
| VUAAVanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) | +22.6% | +13.5% | — | EUR |
| SPLGSPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF | +19.8% | +13.1% | — | USD |
| VUSAVanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Dist) | +21.6% | +12.3% | — | EUR |
Total returns with dividends reinvested, each in its trading currency, to the last close. Funds in different currencies are not directly comparable.
Questions
What has the S&P 500 returned a year?
Measured through SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust), with dividends reinvested: +11.0% a year from October 2006 to October 2026. Over the last 10 years +15.4% a year, over the last 12 months +16.6%. Past returns do not predict future returns.
What was the biggest fall in the S&P 500 since 2006?
−55.2% from October 2007 to March 2009, measured on SPY with dividends reinvested; it was back at the previous high about 58 months after the peak. Falls before 2006 are outside this history.
Has the S&P 500 ever lost money over 10 years?
Of the 121 10-year periods since October 2006, none ended with a loss; the worst returned +6.6% a year and the best +16.5% a year.
Are hedge funds long or short S&P 500 futures?
Leveraged funds (hedge funds and CTAs) held a net short position of 371,245 contracts in E-mini S&P 500 futures (19.2% of open interest), around the middle of its one-year range. CFTC report of October 20, 2026.
Which ETFs track the S&P 500?
Among the funds MEDGE follows: SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust), VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF), IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF), CSSPX (iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc)), VUAA (Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc)), SPLG (SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF), VUSA (Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Dist)).
Related
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices of SPY, total return with dividends reinvested; CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (futures only). Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.