MSCI EAFE: returns, drawdowns and futures positioning
Large and mid-sized companies in developed markets outside the US and Canada: Europe, Australasia and the Far East.
Data updated October 2026
Measured through EFA, total return in US dollarsData from October 2006
$10,000 in MSCI EAFE (EFA) from October 2006
$27,133
+171% in total, +5.1% a year on average, with dividends reinvested, in US dollars.
- Calendar years with a gain
13 of 19
Best 2025, +31.6%. Worst 2008, −41.0%.
- Deepest fall
−61.0%
Oct 2007 to Mar 2009. Back to the previous high 6.6 years after the peak.
- Annual volatility
21.5%
How much returns swing around their average. Worst single month: −20.8%.
- At the last close
4.7% below its high
October 20, 2026.
Returns to October 2026
1 year
3 years
a year
5 years
a year
10 years
a year
Since 2006
a year
Total return to the last close, dividends reinvested. Periods longer than a year are annualised. SPY is SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, shown for reference.
What holding MSCI EAFE was like
Every stretch of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years since October 2006, starting at each month-end. The bar runs from the worst stretch to the best; the mark is the middle one. Held for 10 years, MSCI EAFE never lost money: the worst stretch still returned +0.6% a year.
Held 1 year
229 periods
63% of periods ended with a gain
Held 3 years
205 periods, a year
83% of periods ended with a gain
Held 5 years
181 periods, a year
86% of periods ended with a gain
Held 10 years
121 periods, a year
100% of periods ended with a gain
Falls and recoveries
How far MSCI EAFE was below its previous high, week by week.
| Fall | From the high of | To the low of | Falling for | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −61.0% | Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | 16 months | Jun 2014, 6.7 years later |
| −34.2% | Jan 2018 | Mar 2020 | 2.2 years | Nov 2020, 2.8 years later |
| −28.6% | Sep 2021 | Sep 2022 | 13 months | Feb 2024, 2.5 years later |
| −21.8% | Jul 2014 | Feb 2016 | 19 months | May 2017, 2.8 years later |
| −11.6% | Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 months | May 2025, 2 months later |
Year by year
MSCI EAFE ended 13 of 19 full calendar years higher. The average gain in an up year was +15.9%, the average loss in a down year −14.8%.
YTD: from 1 January to the last close. 2006 starts at the first price, October 2006.
Example: $500 a month for 10 years
Put in from Nov 2016
$60,000
Worth at the last close
$101,756 +70%
Lowest point: Mar 2020, when the $20,500 put in so far was worth $17,677 (−14%).
Try your own amount and datesInvested at each month-start, dividends reinvested, before trading costs and taxes.
Who holds MSCI EAFE futures
Net positions by type of trader in the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report of October 20, 2026 (positions as of Tuesday, published on Friday). The dot shows where each net position sits between its most short and most long of the past year.
Leveraged funds
Hedge funds and CTAs
Net long 22,506
contracts, 2.1% of open interest · −7,083 on the week
Asset managers
Pension funds, insurers, mutual funds
Net long 505,642
contracts, 48.1% of open interest · +17,674 on the week
Dealers
Banks and market makers
Net short 530,274
contracts, 50.4% of open interest · −8,627 on the week
Net position as a share of open interest, weekly, last three years. Above zero: net long.
ETFs that track MSCI EAFE
| Fund | 1 year | 5 years, a year | 10 years, a year | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEFAiShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF | +12.8% | +8.3% | +9.2% | USD |
| EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF | +12.5% | +8.6% | +9.1% | USD |
| SCZiShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF | +12.3% | +4.9% | +7.9% | USD |
Total returns with dividends reinvested, each in its trading currency, to the last close. Funds in different currencies are not directly comparable.
Questions
What has MSCI EAFE returned a year?
Measured through EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF), with dividends reinvested: +5.1% a year from October 2006 to October 2026. Over the last 10 years +9.1% a year, over the last 12 months +12.5%. Past returns do not predict future returns.
What was the biggest fall in MSCI EAFE since 2006?
−61.0% from October 2007 to March 2009, measured on EFA with dividends reinvested; it was back at the previous high about 79 months after the peak. Falls before 2006 are outside this history.
Has MSCI EAFE ever lost money over 10 years?
Of the 121 10-year periods since October 2006, none ended with a loss; the worst returned +0.6% a year and the best +10.2% a year.
Are hedge funds long or short MSCI EAFE futures?
Leveraged funds (hedge funds and CTAs) held a net long position of 22,506 contracts in MSCI EAFE futures (2.1% of open interest), around the middle of its one-year range. CFTC report of October 20, 2026.
Which ETFs track MSCI EAFE?
Among the funds MEDGE follows: IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF), EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF), SCZ (iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF).
Related
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices of EFA, total return with dividends reinvested; CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (futures only). Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.