All Weather Portfolio: backtest, returns and drawdowns
A risk-balanced mix built to hold up across growth, recession, inflation and deflation, with a large allocation to long-term Treasuries.
Data updated October 2026
Created by: Ray Dalio (simplified version popularised by Tony Robbins)
Allocation
| Asset class | ETF used in the backtest | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| US stocks | VTI | 30% |
| Long-term US Treasuries | TLT | 40% |
| Intermediate US Treasuries | IEF | 15% |
| Gold | GLD | 7.5% |
| Broad commodities | DBC | 7.5% |
From June 2020 to October 2026 the All Weather Portfolio returned 4.4% a year on average, with annual volatility of 9.4%. Its deepest fall was 23.8%, from November 2021 to October 2022, recovered in about 46 months.
Its best year was 2025 (+13.4%) and its worst 2022 (−19.2%).
Over the same period 100% US stocks returned 16.8% a year with a maximum fall of 25.4%.
Key figures
- Annual return (CAGR)
- +4.4%
- Annual volatility
- 9.4%
- Maximum drawdown
- −23.8%
- Recovery time
- 46 months
- Sharpe
- 0.21
- Sortino
- 0.29
- Worst year
- 2022: −19.2%
- Positive years
- 4/5
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
Returns by calendar year
| Year | All Weather Portfolio | 60/40 Portfolio | 100% Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026(partial) | +4.1% | +8.0% | +14.7% |
| 2025 | +13.4% | +13.1% | +17.1% |
| 2024 | +6.0% | +14.8% | +23.8% |
| 2023 | +10.0% | +17.9% | +26.1% |
| 2022 | −19.2% | −17.0% | −19.5% |
| 2021 | +8.2% | +14.6% | +25.7% |
| 2020(partial) | +9.6% | +16.5% | +26.4% |
How it works
Instead of balancing capital, it balances risk: the volatile stock slice is small, bonds are large, and gold and commodities cover inflation.
Backtest with total-return ETF prices (dividends reinvested), rebalanced to target weights on the first trading day of each year. No fees, taxes or currency effects; first and last years are partial. Past results do not predict future returns.
Questions
What is the All Weather Portfolio?
A risk-balanced mix built to hold up across growth, recession, inflation and deflation, with a large allocation to long-term Treasuries. Allocation: 30% us stocks, 40% long-term us treasuries, 15% intermediate us treasuries, 7.5% gold, 7.5% broad commodities. Created by: Ray Dalio (simplified version popularised by Tony Robbins).
What is the All Weather Portfolio return?
In the backtest from June 2020 to October 2026 it returned 4.4% a year on average, with a maximum drawdown of 23.8%. US dollars, before fees and taxes.
How often should it be rebalanced?
The backtest rebalances once a year back to the target weights. Rebalancing more often changes little and adds costs; some investors rebalance only when a weight drifts beyond a threshold.
What was the worst drawdown of the All Weather Portfolio?
23.8%, from November 2021 to October 2022; it took about 46 months to get back to the previous high.
Other lazy portfolios
- How to hedge a portfolioGuide
- 60/40 PortfolioCAGR +10.0%
- Permanent PortfolioCAGR +7.0%
- Golden Butterfly PortfolioCAGR +8.4%
- Three-Fund PortfolioCAGR +9.1%
- Coffeehouse PortfolioCAGR +8.1%
- David Swensen PortfolioCAGR +8.8%
- Core Four PortfolioCAGR +11.6%
- Warren Buffett 90/10 PortfolioCAGR +15.9%
- 100% StocksCAGR +16.8%
- Versione italiana
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices. Historical and educational content: not a forecast and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.