Pinwheel Portfolio: backtest, returns and drawdowns
Eight slices of 10% and 15% across stocks, bonds, cash, real estate and gold.
Data updated October 2026
Created by: Tyler (Portfolio Charts)
Allocation
| Asset class | ETF used in the backtest | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | ITOT | 15% |
| US small-cap value | IJS | 10% |
| International developed stocks | EFA | 15% |
| Emerging-market stocks | EEM | 10% |
| Intermediate US Treasuries | IEF | 15% |
| Treasury bills (cash) | BIL | 10% |
| US real estate (REITs) | IYR | 15% |
| Gold | GLD | 10% |
- Stocks 65%
- Bonds 15%
- Cash 10%
- Gold 10%
From October 2011 to October 2026 the Pinwheel Portfolio returned 7.6% a year on average, with annual volatility of 10.8%. Its deepest fall was 23.1%, from February 2020 to March 2020, recovered in about 7 months.
Its best year was 2025 (+19.8%) and its worst 2022 (−14.3%).
Over the same period 100% US stocks returned 14.3% a year with a maximum fall of 35.0%.
Key figures
- Annual return (CAGR)
- +7.6%
- Annual volatility
- 10.8%
- Maximum drawdown
- −23.1%
- Recovery time
- 7 months
- Sharpe
- 0.59
- Sortino
- 0.83
- Worst year
- 2022: −14.3%
- Positive years
- 11/14
Growth of $10,000
Drawdowns
Returns by calendar year
| Year | Pinwheel Portfolio | 60/40 Portfolio | 100% Stocks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026(partial) | +7.0% | +6.9% | +12.7% |
| 2025 | +19.8% | +13.0% | +17.0% |
| 2024 | +9.2% | +14.8% | +23.8% |
| 2023 | +13.2% | +17.9% | +26.1% |
| 2022 | −14.3% | −16.9% | −19.5% |
| 2021 | +13.2% | +14.6% | +25.7% |
| 2020 | +9.4% | +15.4% | +20.7% |
| 2019 | +19.5% | +21.9% | +30.7% |
| 2018 | −6.3% | −3.1% | −5.3% |
| 2017 | +14.9% | +14.2% | +21.4% |
| 2016 | +8.2% | +8.3% | +12.1% |
| 2015 | −3.1% | +0.2% | −0.1% |
| 2014 | +6.3% | +9.7% | +12.2% |
| 2013 | +7.9% | +18.2% | +31.8% |
| 2012 | +12.6% | +10.4% | +14.7% |
| 2011(partial) | +2.8% | +3.1% | +4.1% |
History
- Created by
- Tyler
- Who
- Creator of the Portfolio Charts website
- Year
- 2010s
- Source
- Portfolio Charts (portfoliocharts.com)
- Funds in the backtest
- 8
Tyler, the creator of Portfolio Charts and of the Golden Butterfly, designed the Pinwheel to spread a portfolio across the four broad families of assets – stocks, bonds, cash and real assets – in eight slices of 10% and 15%, so that no single family dominates.
Stocks are split across US total market, small-cap value, international and emerging markets; real assets across real estate and gold; the safe side across intermediate Treasuries and cash. The result sits between a balanced fund and a permanent-style portfolio.
Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths
- Eight slices across stocks, bonds, cash and real assets
- Gold and cash for crises, real estate and stocks for growth
- No single asset above 15%
Weaknesses
- Eight funds to manage
- Cash and gold weigh on returns in long bull markets
- Real estate and stocks still fall together in deep crises
How it works
Spread money evenly across the four big families of assets so that none dominates the result.
Backtest with total-return ETF prices (dividends reinvested), rebalanced to target weights on the first trading day of each year. Where a Vanguard fund has a short price history in our data, an iShares fund on the same market is used (for example ITOT for VTI, IVV for VOO). No fees, taxes or currency effects; first and last years are partial. Past results do not predict future returns.
Questions
Who created the Pinwheel Portfolio?
Tyler (creator of the Portfolio Charts website), 2010s. Source: Portfolio Charts (portfoliocharts.com).
What is the Pinwheel Portfolio?
Eight slices of 10% and 15% across stocks, bonds, cash, real estate and gold. Allocation: 15% us total stock market, 10% us small-cap value, 15% international developed stocks, 10% emerging-market stocks, 15% intermediate us treasuries, 10% treasury bills (cash), 15% us real estate (reits), 10% gold. Created by: Tyler (Portfolio Charts).
What is the Pinwheel Portfolio return?
In the backtest from October 2011 to October 2026 it returned 7.6% a year on average, with a maximum drawdown of 23.1%. US dollars, before fees and taxes.
How often should it be rebalanced?
The backtest rebalances once a year back to the target weights. Rebalancing more often changes little and adds costs; some investors rebalance only when a weight drifts beyond a threshold.
What was the worst drawdown of the Pinwheel Portfolio?
23.1%, from February 2020 to March 2020; it took about 7 months to get back to the previous high.
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- Versione italiana
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices. Historical and educational content: not a forecast and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.