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For FIRE and long-term investors: will the money last, and what could break it?

Financial independence is a decades-long bet on one portfolio. MEDGE Capital helps you size the goal, test whether withdrawals survive bad sequences of returns, choose an allocation you can hold through crashes, and check, years later, that the portfolio still fits the plan.

  • FIRE calculator and a Monte Carlo retirement calculator with 2,000 simulations, free
  • Backtests over up to 20 years with drawdowns, recovery times and crisis replays
  • 12 classic long-term portfolios to compare with your own, from 60/40 to Golden Butterfly
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Who it’s for

  • Investors working towards financial independence who want to test their numbers, not just compute them.
  • People approaching retirement who worry about a crash in the first years of withdrawals.
  • Long-term, buy-and-hold investors following a lazy portfolio.

Who it’s not for

  • Detailed pension, tax or social-security planning: the calculators keep those out on purpose.
  • Short-term traders.
  • Anyone looking for a guaranteed safe withdrawal rate: simulations give probabilities, not promises.

Step by step

How MEDGE Capital helps fire and long-term investors, situation by situation.

01Free plan

How much do I need, and how many years will it take?

Your FI number depends on spending and on the withdrawal rate; your timeline depends on how much you save and on returns.

In MEDGE

  1. 1Open Tools → FIRE calculator and enter savings, income, spending, the withdrawal rate and a real return.
  2. 2Read your FI number (yearly spending divided by the withdrawal rate) and the years until the portfolio reaches it, with a table for every savings rate.
  3. 3All amounts are in today’s money because the return is after inflation.

What you get

Your target and timeline, and how much a higher savings rate shortens it.

Open the FIRE calculator

Bad case · p10

€71k

Median

€128k

Good case · p90

€210k

Illustrative preview, not a real portfolio.

02Free plan

Will the money last 30 years of withdrawals?

The order of returns matters as much as their average: a crash in the first years of withdrawals can sink a plan that looks fine on paper.

In MEDGE

  1. 1Open Tools → Retirement calculator, enter savings, yearly spending and the number of years.
  2. 2MEDGE runs 2,000 simulations built from real stock and bond returns, each with a different order of good and bad years.
  3. 3Read the chance that the money lasts and the yearly spending with a 90% success rate.

What you get

A probability, not a promise: how often your withdrawals survive, and what spending is safer.

Open the retirement calculator
Strong marketsMedianWeak markets

4% withdrawn each year, 30 years.

Illustrative preview, not a real portfolio.

03Free plan

Choosing an allocation you can hold for decades

The best long-term portfolio is the one you do not sell in a crash. That depends on how deep and how long its falls are.

In MEDGE

  1. 1In the analyzer’s Preset Portfolios tab, compare your mix with 12 classics: 60/40, 80/20, 40/60, Three-Fund, All Weather, Permanent, Golden Butterfly, Swensen, Coffeehouse and others.
  2. 2Read performance, drawdowns, key metrics side by side and the strengths and weaknesses of each against yours.
  3. 3Portfolio Models shows 23 models with live performance from 1 week to 15 years; the public lazy-portfolio pages explain each one.

What you get

An allocation chosen for its worst years as well as its average, compared with the classics.

Lazy portfolios explained
ModelCAGRMax DD
All Weather5.1%-20.1%
Golden Butterfly6.4%-16.3%
Three-fund7.6%-24.9%
60/406.9%-21.4%

Illustrative preview, not a real portfolio.

04Free plan

Living through a crash, before it happens

A 40% fall the year you stop working is the scenario FIRE planners fear most. You can measure it in advance.

In MEDGE

  1. 1Backtest your portfolio over 15 or 20 years and read the deepest drawdown and how long it took to recover.
  2. 2In Backtesting → Period Analysis, jump to the worst year or pick a crisis preset such as 2008 or 2020.
  3. 3In External Ticker Shock, replay “2008 GFC Replay”, “Stagflation (1970s-style)” or “Rates Shock +200bp” on your weights; from Essential, build your own scenario in the Stress Lab.
  4. 4Test protection in Hedging tools: which hedge would have softened those falls, at what cost per year.

What you get

How big a bad sequence could be for your portfolio, and whether a hedge or a calmer mix is worth it.

Deepest fall

-7.1%

Months to recover

14

Worst month

−8.9%

Illustrative preview, not a real portfolio.

05Free plan

Fees and rebalancing over 30 years

Half a percent a year looks small; over three decades it is a large share of the final amount. Rebalancing has a cost too.

In MEDGE

  1. 1Use Tools → Fee impact to see what a fund’s yearly cost takes from the final amount.
  2. 2In Backtesting, compare rebalancing policies with your real transaction cost: rebalances, turnover, costs paid and cost drag.
  3. 3Use the Compound interest and CAGR calculators to check the long-term arithmetic.

What you get

The long-run cost of fees and trading, made visible before it compounds.

Fee impact calculator

Max drawdown

−24.1%

−16.8%

Volatility

15.2%

11.4%

CAGR

8.9%

7.6%

CurrentQQQ → 10%, +10% bonds

Illustrative preview, not a real portfolio.

Feature map

Every MEDGE feature fire and long-term investors use, and the plan that unlocks it.

FeatureThe question it answersPlan
FIRE calculatorWhat is my FI number and how long will it take?Free
Retirement calculatorWill my withdrawals last, in 2,000 simulations?Free
Preset Portfolios and Portfolio ModelsWhich long-term allocation fits me?Free
Backtesting, period analysis, ticker shocksHow deep can it fall, and how long to recover?Free
Hedging toolsWould a hedge have softened the worst years?Free
Fee, compound and CAGR calculatorsWhat do costs and compounding do over decades?Free
Analysis tab with Monte CarloWhat range of outcomes for my actual portfolio, with a goal calculator?Essential+
Stress LabWhat does my own crash scenario do to each holding?Essential+

What MEDGE does not do

Worth knowing before you decide.

  • The calculators leave out pensions, taxes and changes in spending on purpose: treat results as a guide.
  • Simulations give probabilities based on past returns, not guarantees about the future.
  • Analytics, not advice: MEDGE does not provide financial planning.

FAQ

MEDGE Capital for fire and long-term investors: questions.

Is there a free Monte Carlo retirement calculator?

Yes. MEDGE Capital’s retirement calculator runs 2,000 simulations built from real stock and bond returns and shows the chance that your savings last and the yearly spending with a 90% success rate. It is free and needs no account.

How do I test sequence-of-returns risk?

The retirement calculator varies the order of good and bad years across 2,000 simulations. For your actual portfolio, backtest it over 15 to 20 years, jump to the worst periods in Period Analysis and replay crises such as 2008 with External Ticker Shock, all on the Free plan.

Which lazy portfolio is best for FIRE?

There is no single answer: it depends on how deep a fall you can hold through. MEDGE compares your portfolio with 12 classics, from 60/40 to Golden Butterfly, on returns, drawdowns and recovery, so you can choose with the numbers in front of you.

Start with your own portfolio, free.

Paste your tickers and weights. Backtests, attribution and regimes work on the Free plan with no time limit; upgrade only when you need the features above.

Analyse my portfolio free See pricing

MEDGE Capital is an analytics tool, not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Full disclaimer.