SPY vs USMV: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust against iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF, over the same 6 years (July 2020 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From July 2020 to October 2026, SPY returned 17.0% a year and USMV 10.1% a year on average, so SPY came out ahead by 6.9% a year. SPY was the more volatile of the two (15.4% against 12.3% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 23.9% for SPY and 17.4% for USMV.
The correlation of monthly returns was 0.83: they usually moved together. Over 41 rolling 3-year periods, SPY did better in 100% and USMV in 0%.
Side by side
| SPY | USMV | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +17.0% | +10.1% |
| Total return | +171% | +84% |
| Annual volatility | 15.4% | 12.3% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −23.9% | −17.4% |
| Worst month | −9.2% | −7.1% |
| Best month | +10.9% | +8.1% |
| Positive months | 66% | 62% |
| Best year | 2021: +28.7% | 2021: +20.8% |
| Worst year | 2022: −18.2% | 2022: −9.4% |
| 1-year return | +16.6% | +8.9% |
| 5 years, a year | +12.7% | +7.5% |
| 10 years, a year | +15.4% | — |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 76 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: SPY vs USMV
Returns by calendar year
| Year | SPY | USMV |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +17.7% | +7.6% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | +15.7% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +10.3% |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −9.4% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | +20.8% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, SPY or USMV?
From July 2020 to October 2026, SPY returned +17.0% a year and USMV +10.1% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods SPY did better in 100% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, SPY or USMV?
Over the same months annual volatility was 15.4% for SPY and 12.3% for USMV; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 23.9% and 17.4%, and the worst single month −9.2% and −7.1%.
How correlated are SPY and USMV?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.83: they usually moved together. Combining them has historically given some diversification.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.