SPY vs TLT: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust against iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, over the same 20 years (November 2006 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From November 2006 to October 2026, SPY returned 11.0% a year and TLT 2.6% a year on average, so SPY came out ahead by 8.4% a year. SPY was the more volatile of the two (15.3% against 14.0% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 50.8% for SPY and 47.6% for TLT.
The correlation of monthly returns was -0.08: they moved largely independently. Over 205 rolling 3-year periods, SPY did better in 79% and TLT in 21%.
Side by side
| SPY | TLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +11.0% | +2.6% |
| Total return | +702% | +68% |
| Annual volatility | 15.3% | 14.0% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −50.8% | −47.6% |
| Worst month | −16.5% | −13.1% |
| Best month | +12.7% | +14.3% |
| Positive months | 67% | 51% |
| Best year | 2013: +32.3% | 2011: +34.0% |
| Worst year | 2008: −36.8% | 2022: −31.2% |
| 1-year return | +16.6% | −8.8% |
| 5 years, a year | +12.7% | −7.9% |
| 10 years, a year | +15.4% | −2.3% |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 240 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: SPY vs TLT
Returns by calendar year
| Year | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +17.7% | +4.3% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | −8.1% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +2.8% |
| 2022 | −18.2% | −31.2% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | −4.6% |
| 2020 | +18.3% | +18.1% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +14.1% |
| 2018 | −4.6% | −1.6% |
| 2017 | +21.7% | +9.2% |
| 2016 | +12.0% | +1.2% |
| 2015 | +1.2% | −1.8% |
| 2014 | +13.5% | +27.3% |
| 2013 | +32.3% | −13.4% |
| 2012 | +16.0% | +2.6% |
| 2011 | +1.9% | +34.0% |
| 2010 | +15.1% | +9.0% |
| 2009 | +26.4% | −21.8% |
| 2008 | −36.8% | +33.9% |
| 2007 | +5.1% | +10.3% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, SPY or TLT?
From November 2006 to October 2026, SPY returned +11.0% a year and TLT +2.6% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods SPY did better in 79% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, SPY or TLT?
Over the same months annual volatility was 15.3% for SPY and 14.0% for TLT; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 50.8% and 47.6%, and the worst single month −16.5% and −13.1%.
How correlated are SPY and TLT?
The correlation of their monthly returns was -0.08: they moved largely independently. Combining them has historically smoothed the ups and downs of either one alone.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.