Rolling returns: the best and worst holding periods
Pick an ETF or a lazy portfolio and see the annualised return of every 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15-year period in its history: the worst, the median, the best, and how many ended with a gain.
Loading monthly returns…
Monthly total returns with dividends reinvested, in the fund’s trading currency. Periods overlap, so they are not independent. Historical data, not a forecast.
How to read the result
Each row summarises every period of that length. The worst and best values show the range an investor actually lived through; the median is the middle outcome. The share of positive periods tells you how often patience was rewarded in this data.
The chart plots the selected period length by its end month: dips show the periods that started near a market top.
Questions
What are rolling returns?
They are the returns of every possible period of a given length – for example every 5-year stretch, moving forward one month at a time – rather than of a single start and end date. They show the full range of outcomes an investor could have had depending on when they started.
Why do longer periods have fewer losses?
Over longer holding periods good and bad years tend to offset each other, so the range of annualised returns narrows. A narrower range is not a guarantee: in some markets even 10 or 15-year periods have ended with losses.
Are the periods independent?
No. Consecutive periods overlap almost entirely, so the number of periods overstates how many independent observations there are. Treat the percentages as a description of history, not as probabilities.
Which funds and portfolios are available?
The US and European ETFs covered by our ETF pages and the lazy portfolios backtested on this site, with total returns including reinvested dividends.
More free tools
- Portfolio backtestUp to 5 ETFs on real monthly returns
- DCA calculatorMonthly investing with real returns
- Efficient frontierRisk and return of every mix of 2–3 ETFs
- Drawdown recoveryHow long falls took to recover
- Retirement calculatorMonte Carlo on historical returns
- FIRE calculatorYears to financial independence
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.