GBTC vs BITO: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF against ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, over the same 5 years (November 2021 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
10,000 became
11,898
- A year on average
- +3.5%
- Annual volatility
- 64.6%
- Deepest fall
- −83.3%
- Worst month
- −41.3%
BITO
ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF
10,000 became
10,442
- A year on average
- +0.9%
- Annual volatility
- 56.2%
- Deepest fall
- −74.2%
- Worst month
- −40.9%
GBTC came out ahead by 2.7 percentage points a year from November 2021 to October 2026. GBTC swung more (64.6% against 56.2% a year). The correlation of monthly returns was 0.95: they moved almost in lockstep.
Growth of 10,000: GBTC vs BITO
Who was ahead, and when
The gap between the two over the previous three years, at each month-end. Above zero GBTC had returned more, below zero BITO. GBTC was ahead in 100% of the 25 three-year periods.
Annualised 3-year return of GBTC minus that of BITO, in percentage points a year.
Falls from the previous high
Month-end values. Deepest fall: GBTC −83.3%, BITO −74.2%.
All the figures
| GBTC | BITO | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +3.5% | +0.9% |
| Total return | +19% | +4% |
| Annual volatility | 64.6% | 56.2% |
| Deepest fall (month-end) | −83.3% | −74.2% |
| Worst month | −41.3% | −40.9% |
| Best month | +46.6% | +45.0% |
| Positive months | 50% | 53% |
| Best year | 2023: +317.6% | 2023: +137.3% |
| Worst year | 2022: −75.8% | 2022: −63.9% |
| 1-year return | −27.9% | −27.1% |
| 5 years, a year | +3.9% | +0.7% |
| 10 years, a year | +11.9% | — |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 60 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Year by year
Full calendar years both funds were trading. The higher of the two each year is in bold.
Holding both: half GBTC, half BITO
| GBTC alone | BITO alone | 50/50 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A year on average | +3.5% | +0.9% | +2.6% |
| Annual volatility | 64.6% | 56.2% | 59.7% |
| Deepest fall (month-end) | −83.3% | −74.2% | −79.1% |
| Worst month | −41.3% | −40.9% | −41.1% |
With a correlation of 0.95 the mix behaved almost like either fund alone: its volatility of 59.7% sits between the two. Rebalanced to 50/50 every month, before costs.
Questions
Which has returned more, GBTC or BITO?
From November 2021 to October 2026, GBTC returned +3.5% a year and BITO +0.9% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods GBTC did better in 100% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, GBTC or BITO?
Over the same months annual volatility was 64.6% for GBTC and 56.2% for BITO; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 83.3% and 74.2%, and the worst single month −41.3% and −40.9%.
How correlated are GBTC and BITO?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.95: they moved almost in lockstep. Holding both adds little diversification compared with holding one.
What about holding both GBTC and BITO?
Half in each, rebalanced every month, returned +2.6% a year over the same period, with 59.7% annual volatility and a deepest month-end fall of 79.1%.
More comparisons
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.