Wheat COT report: hedge fund and commercial positioning
Data updated October 6, 2026 (positions as of Tuesday)
Managed money (hedge funds and CTAs) held a net short position of 28,830 contracts in Wheat (5.8% of open interest), in the upper part of its one-year range.
Over the last four weeks the net position changed by -33,703 contracts (−6.8 points of open interest), while the spot price moved −3.6%.
Producers and merchants (commercial hedgers) held a net short position of 56,769 contracts in Wheat (11.4% of open interest), in the lower part of its one-year range.
Positions this week
- Managed money net
- -28,830
- Net % of open interest
- -5.8%
- Change 1 week
- -6,721
- Change 4 weeks
- -33,703
- COT index 52 weeks
- 66
- COT index 3 years
- 69
- Producers index 52 weeks
- 37
- Reading
- Funds adding shorts
Net positions and price, three years
What followed extreme positioning
| Managed money at | Weeks | Next 4 weeks | Next 12 weeks | Up after 12 weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top of 52-week range (index ≥ 90) | 11 | −0.5% | +3.4% | 64% |
| Bottom of 52-week range (index ≤ 10) | 4 | +4.2% | +6.3% | 75% |
| All weeks | 64 | +1.9% | +5.4% | 66% |
Spot change after each weekly report, 6.0 years of data. Windows overlap, so the number of independent episodes is smaller than the week count.
Questions
Are hedge funds long or short wheat?
Managed money (hedge funds and CTAs) held a net short position of 28,830 contracts in Wheat (5.8% of open interest), in the upper part of its one-year range. Report of October 6, 2026.
What is the COT report?
The Commitments of Traders is a weekly CFTC report of open positions in US futures markets, split by type of trader. It reflects positions as of Tuesday and is published on Friday afternoon. Commodity markets use the Disaggregated report (producers, swap dealers, managed money); financial futures use the Traders in Financial Futures report (dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds).
What is the COT index?
It places the latest net position between the lowest (0) and highest (100) of a look-back window, here 52 weeks and 3 years. Readings near 0 or 100 mean the group is at an extreme of its recent range; they describe positioning and do not predict prices on their own.
What happened to wheat after managed money was at an extreme long?
Over 6.0 years of weekly reports, in the 11 weeks when the 52-week index was at 90 or above, the spot price changed by +3.4% on average over the next 12 weeks, against +5.4% across all weeks. Overlapping windows and a small sample: this is a description of the past, not a forecast.
Related
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Disaggregated, futures only); MarketStack commodity prices. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.