TLT vs GOVT: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF against iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, over the same 14 years (March 2012 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From March 2012 to October 2026, TLT returned 0.2% a year and GOVT 1.0% a year on average, so GOVT came out ahead by 0.9% a year. TLT was the more volatile of the two (13.1% against 4.5% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 47.6% for TLT and 19.2% for GOVT.
The correlation of monthly returns was 0.91: they moved almost in lockstep. Over 141 rolling 3-year periods, TLT did better in 56% and GOVT in 44%.
Side by side
| TLT | GOVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +0.2% | +1.0% |
| Total return | +2% | +16% |
| Annual volatility | 13.1% | 4.5% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −47.6% | −19.2% |
| Worst month | −9.4% | −3.4% |
| Best month | +11.0% | +3.5% |
| Positive months | 50% | 51% |
| Best year | 2014: +27.3% | 2019: +7.4% |
| Worst year | 2022: −31.2% | 2022: −13.4% |
| 1-year return | −8.8% | −2.0% |
| 5 years, a year | −7.9% | −0.7% |
| 10 years, a year | −2.3% | +0.6% |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 176 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: TLT vs GOVT
Returns by calendar year
| Year | TLT | GOVT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +4.3% | +3.8% |
| 2024 | −8.1% | +2.9% |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +4.2% |
| 2022 | −31.2% | −13.4% |
| 2021 | −4.6% | −1.1% |
| 2020 | +18.1% | +6.3% |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +7.4% |
| 2018 | −1.6% | +0.3% |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +2.2% |
| 2016 | +1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2015 | −1.8% | +0.9% |
| 2014 | +27.3% | +4.7% |
| 2013 | −13.4% | −2.5% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, TLT or GOVT?
From March 2012 to October 2026, TLT returned +0.2% a year and GOVT +1.0% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods TLT did better in 56% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, TLT or GOVT?
Over the same months annual volatility was 13.1% for TLT and 4.5% for GOVT; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 47.6% and 19.2%, and the worst single month −9.4% and −3.4%.
How correlated are TLT and GOVT?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.91: they moved almost in lockstep. Holding both adds little diversification compared with holding one.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.