TLT vs SHY: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF against iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, over the same 20 years (November 2006 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From November 2006 to October 2026, TLT returned 2.6% a year and SHY 1.9% a year on average, so TLT came out ahead by 0.7% a year. TLT was the more volatile of the two (14.0% against 1.5% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 47.6% for TLT and 5.4% for SHY.
The correlation of monthly returns was 0.58: they moved together only in part. Over 205 rolling 3-year periods, TLT did better in 70% and SHY in 30%.
Side by side
| TLT | SHY | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +2.6% | +1.9% |
| Total return | +68% | +45% |
| Annual volatility | 14.0% | 1.5% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −47.6% | −5.4% |
| Worst month | −13.1% | −1.4% |
| Best month | +14.3% | +1.8% |
| Positive months | 51% | 65% |
| Best year | 2011: +34.0% | 2007: +7.3% |
| Worst year | 2022: −31.2% | 2022: −3.9% |
| 1-year return | −8.8% | +1.4% |
| 5 years, a year | −7.9% | +1.9% |
| 10 years, a year | −2.3% | +1.7% |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 240 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: TLT vs SHY
Returns by calendar year
| Year | TLT | SHY |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +4.3% | +5.0% |
| 2024 | −8.1% | +3.9% |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +4.2% |
| 2022 | −31.2% | −3.9% |
| 2021 | −4.6% | −0.7% |
| 2020 | +18.1% | +3.0% |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +3.4% |
| 2018 | −1.6% | +1.5% |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +0.3% |
| 2016 | +1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2015 | −1.8% | +0.4% |
| 2014 | +27.3% | +0.4% |
| 2013 | −13.4% | +0.2% |
| 2012 | +2.6% | +0.3% |
| 2011 | +34.0% | +1.4% |
| 2010 | +9.0% | +2.3% |
| 2009 | −21.8% | +0.4% |
| 2008 | +33.9% | +6.6% |
| 2007 | +10.3% | +7.3% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, TLT or SHY?
From November 2006 to October 2026, TLT returned +2.6% a year and SHY +1.9% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods TLT did better in 70% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, TLT or SHY?
Over the same months annual volatility was 14.0% for TLT and 1.5% for SHY; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 47.6% and 5.4%, and the worst single month −13.1% and −1.4%.
How correlated are TLT and SHY?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.58: they moved together only in part. Combining them has historically given some diversification.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.