USO vs DBC: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
United States Oil Fund against Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, over the same 6 years (July 2020 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From July 2020 to October 2026, USO returned 31.6% a year and DBC 19.7% a year on average, so USO came out ahead by 11.9% a year. USO was the more volatile of the two (36.2% against 17.0% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 29.1% for USO and 23.0% for DBC.
The correlation of monthly returns was 0.89: they usually moved together. Over 41 rolling 3-year periods, USO did better in 90% and DBC in 10%.
Side by side
| USO | DBC | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +31.6% | +19.7% |
| Total return | +469% | +213% |
| Annual volatility | 36.2% | 17.0% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −29.1% | −23.0% |
| Worst month | −17.8% | −9.6% |
| Best month | +55.3% | +15.3% |
| Positive months | 57% | 63% |
| Best year | 2021: +64.7% | 2021: +41.4% |
| Worst year | 2025: −8.5% | 2023: −6.2% |
| 1-year return | +134.1% | +56.6% |
| 5 years, a year | +22.7% | +12.3% |
| 10 years, a year | — | +10.0% |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 76 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: USO vs DBC
Returns by calendar year
| Year | USO | DBC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −8.5% | +8.1% |
| 2024 | +13.4% | +2.2% |
| 2023 | −4.9% | −6.2% |
| 2022 | +29.0% | +19.3% |
| 2021 | +64.7% | +41.4% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, USO or DBC?
From July 2020 to October 2026, USO returned +31.6% a year and DBC +19.7% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods USO did better in 90% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, USO or DBC?
Over the same months annual volatility was 36.2% for USO and 17.0% for DBC; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 29.1% and 23.0%, and the worst single month −17.8% and −9.6%.
How correlated are USO and DBC?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.89: they usually moved together. Combining them has historically given some diversification.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.