PDBC vs UNG: returns, risk and drawdowns compared
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF against United States Natural Gas Fund, over the same 6 years (July 2020 to October 2026) with dividends reinvested.
Data updated October 2026
From July 2020 to October 2026, PDBC returned 13.6% a year and UNG 20.0% a year on average, so PDBC came out ahead by 33.6% a year. UNG was the more volatile of the two (62.6% against 19.3% a year), and the deepest falls from a month-end high were 28.2% for PDBC and 92.1% for UNG.
The correlation of monthly returns was 0.31: they moved together only in part. Over 41 rolling 3-year periods, PDBC did better in 100% and UNG in 0%.
Side by side
| PDBC | UNG | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return (CAGR) | +13.6% | −20.0% |
| Total return | +124% | −76% |
| Annual volatility | 19.3% | 62.6% |
| Maximum drawdown (month-end) | −28.2% | −92.1% |
| Worst month | −21.7% | −33.9% |
| Best month | +16.1% | +50.6% |
| Positive months | 62% | 43% |
| Best year | 2022: +19.2% | 2021: +35.8% |
| Worst year | 2023: −6.1% | 2023: −64.0% |
| 1-year return | +57.4% | −24.2% |
| 5 years, a year | +5.3% | −32.8% |
| 10 years, a year | +6.3% | — |
| Trading currency | USD | USD |
First nine rows: the same 76 months for both funds. Trailing returns: to each fund’s last close.
Growth of 10,000: PDBC vs UNG
Returns by calendar year
| Year | PDBC | UNG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +6.0% | −27.1% |
| 2024 | +2.1% | −17.1% |
| 2023 | −6.1% | −64.0% |
| 2022 | +19.2% | +12.9% |
| 2021 | +4.1% | +35.8% |
How the figures are calculated
Total return in the fund’s trading currency, from end-of-day prices with dividends reinvested on the ex-date. The fund’s own ongoing charges are already reflected in its price; trading costs, taxes and currency conversion are not included. Past returns do not predict future returns.
The comparison uses only the months in which both funds have prices, so the figures cover the same period even when one fund is older.
Questions
Which has returned more, PDBC or UNG?
From July 2020 to October 2026, PDBC returned +13.6% a year and UNG −20.0% a year, with dividends reinvested. Over rolling 3-year periods PDBC did better in 100% of cases. Past returns do not predict future returns.
Which is riskier, PDBC or UNG?
Over the same months annual volatility was 19.3% for PDBC and 62.6% for UNG; the deepest fall from a month-end high was 28.2% and 92.1%, and the worst single month −21.7% and −33.9%.
How correlated are PDBC and UNG?
The correlation of their monthly returns was 0.31: they moved together only in part. Combining them has historically smoothed the ups and downs of either one alone.
More comparisons
Source: MarketStack end-of-day prices, total return with dividends reinvested. Figures are historical and descriptive; they are not forecasts and not investment advice. MEDGE Capital does not recommend buying or selling any instrument. Risk disclaimer.